Saturday, January 31, 2004


Here are some numbers to chew on...

ARIZONA (Feb. 3rd)
Kerry 27
Clark 18
Dean 13
Lieberman 10
Edwards 8

DELAWARE (Feb. 3rd)
Kerry 27
Lieberman 16
Dean 14
Edwards 9
Clark 8

MISSOURI (Feb. 3rd)
Kerry 46
Edwards 15
Dean 7
Clark 6

Edwards 30
Kerry 18
Clark 11
Sharpton 11
Dean 10
Lieberman 3

VIRGINIA (Feb. 10th)
Kerry 32
Clark 17
Edwards 17
Dean 14

Kerry 43
Lieberman 18
Dean 8
Edwards 6
Clark 4

Friday, January 30, 2004


Yeah everything's real quiet. Dean is in trouble, Kerry is "buoyant", and that's about it. No real earth-shattering news, everything is just calm, the same old stories, the same old names for articles ("so-and-so picks up key endorsement", "Edwards says South is his backyard", "Clark touts service"...)...

Here's the schedule for February:

February 3rd
New Mexico
North Dakota
South Carolina

February 7th

February 8th

February 10th

February 14th

February 17th

February 24

Thursday, January 29, 2004


This is really strange news. I understand Dean's campaign needs a shake up but firing Trippi just sounds so strange... He's basically the guy who built the entire bid from scratch. It's not like Kerry letting go of Chris Lehane... this is DEAN and TRIPPI ! The way it looks from the outside really isn't very reassuring... On the other hand I don't really care, as long as Dean doesn't get the nomination...

Wednesday, January 28, 2004


This race is just so full of surprises and last-minute surges that it's tough to see where it's headed now. We've been seeing these past days how much things can change in a week.

Everyone's got their own theory: some say Kerry isn't prepared for Feb. 3rd, some say Dean is running out of money, some say Clark and Edwards will disappoint in the South... Personally, I don't know what to think.

But if I had to bet I'd probably say that Kerry will keep his momentum going week after week, just building up victories slowly in a domino-like fashion... Dean will fall next Tuesday and Edwards/Clark won't be able to put up a fight.

We'll see.

Tuesday, January 27, 2004


Yeah I know I just ended up saying any old thing last week ("Edwards will be fourth"... lol). So this time, well I'm just going to say any old thing again:

Dean 27
Kerry 25
Edwards 21
Clark 16
Lieberman 8

Monday, January 26, 2004


After a long, long hiatus (nearly six months), The Scrum is updated again... It's a pretty good blog so check it out.


Each one of these paints a different picture. The Boston Globe says Kerry 37/Dean 17. Zogby says Kerry 31/Dean 28. Gallup says Kerry 36/Dean 25.

"There is no question that the race has tightened up," pollster John Zogby said. "Dean stopped the bleeding in the middle of the week and he has slowly regained some of the support he had lost." (from the AP)

Edwars and Clark are either third or fourth. But as I was saying earlier, Clark is on his way down and appears doomed. If Dean wins this thing, he's back on track. And since Kerry really hasn't prepared for Feb. 3rd and beyond, it could turn out to be a Dean/Edwards fight to the death.

This is stressing me out... let's hope Dean gets crushed tomorrow.


First is the good ol'ARG NH tracking poll. Here's how it's moving:

Kerry 34 - 38 - 38
Dean 15 - 16 - 20
Edwards 13 - 15 - 16
Clark 19 - 17 - 15

The Boston Globe gives us the following:

Kerry 35 - 38
Dean 15 - 15
Clark 15 - 14
Edwards 12 - 12

And Zogby says this:

Kerry 30 - 31 - 30
Dean 22 - 22 - 23
Clark 14 - 14 - 13
Edwards 7 - 8 - 9
Lieberman 6 - 7 - 9

So the general trend is that Kerry's untouchable... We'll have to check out polls conducted today to see if there's any big moves but it looks good for Kerry. Dean has either consolidated his second place or even risen slightly. Clark is on the way down, and Edwards/Lieberman are on the way up.

One last thing to remember: this is a Kerry strategist speaking:

"No one has ever won the Democratic nomination without finishing first or second in New Hampshire."

If you want more polls from the Feb. 3rd states and beyond, check out this post from DailyKos.

Sunday, January 25, 2004


... just like Iowa did. Well, not exactly. We still have a real frontrunner (Kerry) but the three guys behind him are just crammed together. Three day trends:

Kerry 31 - 34 - 38
Clark 20 - 19 - 17
Dean 18 - 15 - 16
Edwards 11 - 13 - 15

So Clark and Dean have both been going steadily down while Edwards is rising just as steadily.

Zogby released a poll yesterday that painted a different picture:

Kerry 27 - 30 - 31
Dean 24 - 22 - 22
Clark 15 - 14 - 14
Edwards 8 - 7 - 8

Pfff... I want new polls...

Zogby has new numbers out: Kerry is down 1 point to 30 while Dean might be getting within striking distance: he went up 1 point to 23.
Clark is 1 point down to 13 and Edwards inched up 1 point to 9.

Saturday, January 24, 2004


That's what I would call a disheartening title for an article.

"Even Bennett acknowledged that Clark's momentum in the state has slowed since the victory of Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.) in Monday's Iowa caucuses. Clark's own polls show that undecided voters have moved toward the Iowa winner. "Had anyone considered that John Kerry would win?" Bennett asked. "Kerry's got a lot of momentum here.""


Which one should we trust ? We have Zogby on one side, that goes like this over the course of the past three days:

Kerry 23 - 27 - 30
Dean 25 - 24 - 22
Clark 16 - 15 - 14
Edwards 7 - 8 - 7

And we have the ARG that gives us this:

Kerry 27 - 31 - 34
Clark 19 - 20 - 19
Dean 22 - 18 - 15
Edwards 9 - 11 - 13

So the basic trend is obvious: Kerry is rising and Dean is going down. The big question is where do Clark and Edwars really stand ? How are they gonna evolve over the week-end ?


So Dean's infamous "primal scream" is becoming a cult sound-byte all over the internet. You can find a ton of remixes of it right here.

Friday, January 23, 2004


He's now third ! Clark had basically plateaued at about 19 for the past couple of days and now he's at 20... Kerry's risen dramatically to 31... and Dean is third with 18%. Edwards is rising slightly also. Here are the numbers.

Clark 19 -> 20
Dean 22 -> 18
Edwards 9 -> 11
Kerry 27 -> 31
Kucinich 1
Lieberman 7
Sharpton 0

Thursday, January 22, 2004


The National Journal's Democratic Insiders Poll has been updated. And, as expected, Kerry is back on top.

The last time that thing was updated was on January 16th and Kerry was fifth, with only 1 insider thinking he was the most likely to get the nomination. His standings have rocketed to 23 first place votes.

Meanwhile, Dean has gone from 40 to 11.

Clark is third with 8 first place votes. Edwards is number four with the same.

So this is really wide open... really, really, really wide open. Kos even seems to think Edwards is the one with the best shot at the nomination.


Nothing much is happening. It seems Iowa's last minute surges are forcing people to wait before making any predictions. But Kerry's got momentum, Clark is trying to find his niche, and Dean is back to his old message.

Wednesday, January 21, 2004


The latest poll was conducted between Sunday and Tuesday, so it covers both before and after the Iowa surprise.

Kerry had been rising even before his victory, so now he's second with 24% to Dean's 26. And Clark has gone down a bit to 18.

If Clark doesn't get his act together and finish second, the only un-Dean will be Kerry. But if Dean somehow finishes third like he did in Iowa, the rest of the race will be a Kerry-Clark duel... and that would be fine with me.

Tuesday, January 20, 2004


I'm really surprised and really happy... As you can see below (yesterday's post) I really wasn't expecting this. But I feel glad it happened.

Okay, okay, now that Kerry's strong again, NH is going to be a harsh fight. But it feels so good to see Dean trampled. Man...

I'm not sure Dean is toast yet... but somehow I think the Iowa dynamic is gonna happen again and again all over the joint. I think people are really taking a good long look at Dean and when you compare him with guys like Kerry or, hopefully, Clark, you realise that he just doesn't have what it takes.

Hey, maybe I'm wrong and Dean's going to surge back in NH and it'll turn out to be Dean vs. Kerry, who knows ? But I doubt it.

Anyway this is just the beginning and I'm glad to see the fight is going to be longer and more interesting than we expected.

Meanwhile, Clark, keep your eye on the ball and let's finish first in NH !

Monday, January 19, 2004


Whatever happens tonight, some things seem clear already:

- Gephardt is dead on arrival. Even if he were to win, he's already short of money.

- Whatever happens with Edwards, there's no way he can become the un-Dean.

- There are only two possible un-Deans at this time and they're Kerry and Clark. Depending on Kerry's results we'll see if he's about to crush Wes in NH.

It seems clear that Edwards will be fourth tonight. That for me is certain.

As to who's gonna fly over the top... well I say Dean. I think we've all been kind enjoying the ride and appreciating seeing Kerry and Edwards provide some suspense, but when you look at it, Dean's got the cash, the organization, and his base, though it might me more fragile than we tend to think, won't collapse tonight.

So Dean we'll win. The question is, who'll be number two ? I'm praying Kerry finishes third, so NH stays Clark-land, but I'm not sure that's gonna happen. Gephardt's got that famous "organizational muscle" which could help him stay number two... but somehow I think Kerry will end up second.

See you tomorrow morning.


So the caucuses begin at 7PM Central Time... and the Iowa Democratic Party is hoping to get results out by 10PM according to this NY Times article.

Meanwhile over in NH, Clark got endorsed by McGovern.

Sunday, January 18, 2004


The Washington Post has a piece about Clark's NH momentum (featuring a pic of him and Michael Moore). Yeah, great, that's all real nice... until Kerry steals the caucuses tomorrow...

I hope that's not gonna happen but any talk of Clark's momentum in the Granite State is just to premature... The race is more fluid than ever so let's just wait until Tuesday morning before we start predicting NH.


"I'm going to tell you how tight this is. Ever been to Pella, Iowa? There are eight Democrats in Pella, on a good day. But Dean was there [Monday]. I drove through there today, and Gephardt's bus was there. If those guys are scouring the hills in Pella, Iowa, for Democrats, this thing is close. Anybody who tells you how this is going to turn out -- they're crazy."

From the Washington Post.


The final poll from the DesMoines Register. Likely voters:

Kerry 26
Edwards 23
Dean 20
Gephardt 18

And now those who will definitely attend:

Kerry 33 (!)
Dean 21
Edwards 19
Gephardt 16

God only knows what will happen tomorrow. I really have no idea what to predict.

Saturday, January 17, 2004


As I said the other day, the race is already reshaping itself even before the first vote is cast.

So Dean has stabilized at about 28% in the latest ARG NH tracking poll. Clark peaked at 24 three days ago and has now come down a bit to 23 and now to 22%.

And the bad news is Kerry whose rise has accelerated. He went from 15 to 18 in three days. So this is getting tense, really, really tense.

If Kerry somehow comes out on top in Iowa, it basically kills Clark instantly and Kerry becomes the famous un-Dean so many people have been waiting for.

The best thing for us would probably be a clear Gephardt win in Iowa, with Kerry third... so Wes can take on a fragilized Dean eight days later.

Wooow... I can't wait until Monday...


Well at least in one poll (by Zogby). Kerry is at 24, Gephardt and Dean are at 19. Edwards is at 17.

And now we have a Survey USA poll which gives us the following ranking:

Dean 24
Edwards 22
Kerry 21
Gephardt 20

SUSA sums it up:

"Each might win, each might finish fourth [...] Will momentum trump organization? Will young Deaniacs show? Can labor push Gephardt over the top?"

I personnaly have a hard time imagining Edwards coming out on top. I just don't buy it. But as to the three others, anything goes. From a purely horse-race point of view, it's so fun to see this campaign get suspensfull again. And Clark's gotta be praying for Kerry to stumble... because a Kerry win means a Dean/Kerry battle in NH, with Clark down to 3rd.

Friday, January 16, 2004


This is just great news ! Moore is one of our most thoughtful, intelligent, discerning person out there. And his endorsement of Wesley Clark spells it out loud and clear.

I was expecting Moore to go for Dean... but no. He gets it. He understands what we need. He knows who gives us our best shot at Bush. Here's an excerpt of his message:

"This is not about voting for who is more anti-war or who was anti-war first or who the media has already anointed. It is about backing a candidate that shares our values AND can communicate them to Middle America. I am convinced that the surest slam dunk to remove Bush is with a four-star-general-top-of-his-class-at-West-Point-Rhodes-Scholar-Medal-of-Freedom-winning-gun-owner-from-the-South -- who also, by chance, happens to be pro-choice, pro environment, and anti-war. You don't get handed a gift like this very often. I hope the liberal/left is wise enough to accept it. It's hard, when you're so used to losing, to think that this time you can actually win. It is Clark who stands the best chance -- maybe the only chance -- to win those Southern and Midwestern states that we MUST win in order to accomplish Bush Removal. And if what I have just said is true, then we have no choice but to get behind the one who can make this happen."


We now have Dean ahead by one percentage point. One ! Kerry is number two at 21. And Gephardt is tied with Edwards (!) at 18%.

The race seems to be reshaping itself already. Kos doesn't believe Kerry can actually win Iowa because of his lack of people on the ground. But who knows ? A Kerry win would just make the NH tracking polls go crazy. And what if Dean comes out only third ? Imagine that...

Anyway it seems that Dean's supporters are having doubts. In just one week his base seems to have shrunk dramatically, allowing guys like Edwards to rise instantly, or our man Wes Clark to consolidate his number two spot in NH. And Kerry of course benefits from it a lot too... The Washington Post has a piece about the Edwards/Kerry rise and another (by Dan Balz) about Dean's possibly fragile base.

And the Iowa numbers are here.

Thursday, January 15, 2004


The Iowa phenomenon is repeating itself in NH. Dean is down 2% to 29, Clark is up by 2 to 24 and Kerry jumped up 2% also to 15. The numbers are here.

So our trend here is Dean and Clark getting closer everyday and Kerry becoming the NH comeback kid (and positioning himself as the spoiler).

Of course these numbers are only good as long as Iowa hasn't voted... Expect the polls to just go haywire on Tuesday morning.


Okay so Iowa is up in the air... Dean leads by 3% (he's at 24) in front of Gephardt and Kerry who're battling it out at 21. And Edwards is this week's "comeback kid" with his 15% score. So we all know by now that Iowa could be full of surprises... such as a win by Kerry... which would make him next week's comeback kid and help him propel himself in front of Clark in NH.

Kerry has been enjoying a minuscule bump in the NH polls lately. He went down pretty quick and now he's slowly coming up... day by day... from 10 to 11... to 12... to 13. Let's wait for some new NH numbers to see how this plays out.

But it's getting tense and exciting.

Oh by the way, Moseley-Braun is out of the race.

Tuesday, January 13, 2004


I wouldn't say 35 to 20 is particularly "close", but the Dean-Clark gap is getting smaller. In one week, we've gone from 39/12 to 35/20. Wes Clark's numbers have been going up steadily everyday while Dean's have fallen then stabilized at 35 for the past three days. All the data is here.


Kos asks the question and speculates on each of the major candidates' best possible Iowa outcome.

"The general doesn't want Gephardt mucking things up, so he wants him out. He also wants a weaker Kerry now that second place in NH is a real possibility. He also doesn't want Edwards to gain any traction.

Given that Clark needs to get this down to a two-man race as soon as possible, his best outcome is a solid, convincing Dean victory. It would knock out Gephardt and deal a fatal blow to Kerry. And while Dean would be strengthened, Clark has no chance of winning NH anyway. He doesn't need to win NH. That second-place finish will set him up just nicely heading into the February 2 states."

Monday, January 12, 2004


The ARG's New Hampshire tracking poll show Wes in a solid second place at 19, while Dean is at 36. Kerry and Lieberman are third at 10% so this is looking good...

Let's just hope that after Iowa, when Clark won't be the only candidate campaigning in NH, his numbers won't plummet (but let's hope Dean loses Iowa [which is still pretty close according to Zogby] and his numbers plummet !)

Meanwhile over in Arizona, Clark's in the lead with 39%, Dean second at 32.


This is getting so f*****g exciting... Check this out.

"As Iowa draws ever closer, there are signs of movement in the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination."

Dean is the national favorite with 21%, and Clark is gaining at 17. And, interestingly, Edwards is climbing.

Sunday, January 11, 2004


The ARG tracking poll has Dean, Clark and Kerry stable at 35, 20 and 10. So this second place is looking better every day...

Research 2000 also has some results that confirm Clark's second place. He's at 14%, slightly ahead of John "Failure" Kerry who's at 13. And Dean is at 34 (sigh).

UPDATE: USA Today has their basic Sunday article about Clark, "the guy with momentum".

Friday, January 09, 2004


Richard Perle speaks:

"If others are going to take the view that, because these weapons weren't found, nothing that the United States says can be trusted -- there's not much we can do about that," he said. "It would be a foolish conclusion to draw."

Click here to be infuriated.


These are the latest results from the ARG's NH tracking poll.

jan 2-4 3-5 4-6 5-7 6-8
Clark 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
Dean 39% 37% 36% 35% 35%

Everyday Clark gains on Dean... could you imagine a McCain-like upset on January 27th ?


Larry Sabato's great Crystal Ball has a look at possible vice-presidential candidates should Dean turn out to be the man. Sabato uses his same old "let's put a number on everything" method to try and predict who'll be number 2.

So after taking into account political experience, national security credentials and, most of all, the region from which they're from, Sabato comes up with NM Gov. Bill Richardson as the near-perfect veep candidate for Dean. He's from the South, he's Hispanic, he's been there, done that. That's an attractive possibility.

Number two is Evan Bayh but as Larry points out, Bayh's got a national race in him, but it sounds more like one finishing in "-08"... Tom Harkin, whom everyone is courting for his Iowa endorsement is third, interestingly. And Graham is fourth though Sabato knows that his failed presidential bid certainly hasn't helped him.

There's a small mention of Edwards, and no talk of Clark of course.

The entire analysis and chart can be found here.

Thursday, January 08, 2004


This sounds like a blurb from Clark's official site, but yeah I can feel it. There's the good NH news... and now there's a nationwide poll that shows Dean first with 24, Clark right behind him with 20. A month ago, there was a 15 point gap. Of course this doesn't mean much since there is no nationwide primary, but hey it's still good news.

Wednesday, January 07, 2004


Yep ! Wes is second in NH according to the ARG's daily tracking poll. Kerry and Clark were both at 14 two days ago. And now Wes stands at 17% and old Kerry is down to 13. And we're not talking of some kind of weird bump here... this is a trend. As Kos points out, Kerry's been focusing all of his attention on Iowa, while Clark is doing exactly the same in NH.

Tuesday, January 06, 2004


More evidence of Clark's slow rise... he's at 14, same as Kerry.


"Supporters of Wesley K. Clark are seeking to launch a last-ditch effort to draft the retired general to take part in the Jan. 19 Iowa caucuses, drawing up legal papers to meet federal reporting requirements and taking steps to establish a committee."

The entire article is here.


The NY Times has a piece about the Iowa strategies. Nothing to do with Clark of course, since he's not taking part, but still interesting and rather absurd.

"Yet in this strange electoral environment, that might be an advantage for Mr. Edwards. Given his obstacles, he would almost certainly try to portray third place as a big win, and a second place showing as nothing short of an upset. An aide went even further on Monday, suggesting that coming in fourth in a seven-person field would be good enough."

Yeah right... "fourth" !

UPDATE: Edwards is trying to look older or whatever so he's got this new haircut which makes him look like Bruce Willis when he's trying to play a serious role... awful.

Monday, January 05, 2004


Okay so here's the state by state breakdown, courtesy of Daily Kos:

Solid Democrats 183
CA, CT, DC, DE, HI, IL, MA, MD, ME, NJ, NY, RI, VT and WA
Lean Democrat 50
MI, NM, OR and PA

Solid Republicans 161
AK, AL, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, MS, MT, NC, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TX, UT, VA and WY

Lean Republican 78
CO, FL, MO, OH and TN

Swing 66
AR, AZ, IA, LA, MN, NH, NV, WI and WV

Check out the entire analysis here.


From the same article as below comes some VP speculation should Dean be the nominee:

"Dean has acknowledged that he may need to plug a hole in his résumé by choosing a strong national security figure if he wins the nomination. Clark would be an obvious choice, but he would not be the only one. Sen. Bob Graham (Fla.), who dropped out of the race last year, and former senator Sam Nunn (Ga.) are among several Democrats with the twin attractions of foreign policy stature and southern roots. Among other possibilities are New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, the Clinton administration's ambassador to the United Nations, and Sen. Dianne Feinstein (Calif.). Dean has a penchant for the unexpected, which could lead him toward an African American leader, a woman or one of his other rivals."


I think this pretty much seals it... If Dean becomes the nominee, I really wasn't expecting a Dean-Clark ticket. That sounded kind of interesting back in September before Wesley jumped in and Dean was trying to consolidate his frontrunner status... but now... or by March... forget about it. This isn't based on this article from the Washington Post, no, it's just a matter of common sense. Clark will have spent months bashing Dean and vice-versa, what's the point of getting back together and pretending they're friends ? It won't look good, and it won't smell good. Clark was a great VP candidate back when he was out of the fray, when he was "clean". Now it's over. Forget about it.

UPDATE: check out this home-made poster by a reader of Daily Kos: here it is.

It doesn't look that bad, hey ? And at least it would keep my blog running.

Sunday, January 04, 2004


As of today, the AP is asking each of the candidates the same generic question every day... so they have the old "What would you do first thing". Some of the answers are not as banal as you'd expect.

Saturday, January 03, 2004


Check out this poll. It shows Kerry going down one percentage point everyday, from 19% after Christmas to 15% today. And Clark is slightly up, finishing at 13. So a second place finish is very, very possible...

Friday, January 02, 2004


The Washington Post has an excellent look at the anti-Dean strategies out there. Man I can't tell you how much I want Dean to stumble in Iowa and NH... I just can't wait ! Please, please, please let's hope he just falls flat on the ground...

"Clark is the only candidate moving up in New Hampshire, according to public polls and internal surveys by two rival campaigns, though he trails Dean and Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.). If Clark can overtake Kerry, the retired general could storm into the seven states holding votes on Feb. 3 with significant momentum. With more money than many of his rivals, Clark is planning a sustained media campaign in South Carolina, Tennessee, North Dakota, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Arizona for four weeks until those states vote, a top adviser said. The campaign is also planning to buy television airtime in Wisconsin and Virginia. Dean is the only other candidate advertising on television in so many states.

Clark for the most part has avoided touting detailed policy proposals. He plans to continue emphasizing his military résumé and electability but will also introduce on Monday what aides are billing as the biggest domestic policy initiative of his campaign. Aides would not detail the plan, though they have been promising a major tax reform proposal since the beginning of the campaign."


Okay so here's some good news:

"After relentless fund-raising in his late-entry presidential campaign, retired Army general Wesley K. Clark raised between $10.4 million and $11.1 million in the final quarter of 2003 and will be eligible for up to $6 million in federal matching funds, aides said, making him competitive with other well-financed candidates in the final primary push."

It's from the Boston Globe.

I don't even know why I'm linking to this. It's just the same old article that surfaces every week or so about how Clark's handling his campaigning style.

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Wesley Clark for President
Wesley Clark for President
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